US Stocks End November in the Red; Black Friday Spending Drops as OpenAI and Crypto Face Headwinds
Market Snapshot
- 📈 S&P 500: 6,812.61 (+0.69%)
- 📉 Dow Jones Industrial Average: (-0.29%)
- 📉 NASDAQ Composite: (-2.15%)
- 📈 US 10-Year Treasury: 4.019% (+0.53%)
- 📈 Gold: $4,164 (+0.52%)
- 📉 Bitcoin: (-20.00% monthly)
- 📈 Ethereum: $3,022 (+2.11%)
U.S. Markets End November on a Low Note
Major U.S. stock indices concluded November in negative territory, snapping significant winning streaks. For the month, the S&P 500 was down 0.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.29%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.15%. The downturn ended a six-month rally for both the S&P 500 and the Dow, and a seven-month run for the Nasdaq.
The performance counters the historical norm, where the S&P 500 has typically seen an average advance of 1.8% in November. The week's trading was also complicated by a technical issue at exchange operator CME Group, where a data centre cooling problem on Black Friday temporarily halted futures markets for contracts tracking the major U.S. indices, though services were later resumed.
Black Friday Spending Falters Amid Economic Pressure
This year's Black Friday shopping event served as a crucial barometer for the U.S. economy, with overall spending experiencing its first decline since 2020. Despite a forecast from the National Retail Federation for a record number of shoppers, high living costs and tighter household budgets led to reduced spending.
The average consumer was projected to spend approximately $622, a decrease of around 4% from the previous year. The trend was most acute among younger consumers, with Gen Z shoppers, who were the most likely generation to participate in the sales, expected to spend 23% less than last year. The shift to online shopping continues to outpace brick-and-mortar sales, prompting retailers to start holiday sales earlier in the season and offer slightly smaller online discounts, averaging 28% compared to 30% in 2024.
Corporate Sector Navigates Tariffs and Tech Shifts
Companies across various sectors are adapting to an economic landscape shaped by tariffs and technological disruption. Many premium brands, including Swiss footwear maker On and Spotify, are implementing or planning price increases to offset rising costs, with Abercrombie & Fitch and Nike also signalling targeted price hikes. In contrast, mass-market retailers like Walmart and Target have warned that higher tariffs will likely lead to increased prices for consumers.
Corporate fortunes have been mixed. Abercrombie & Fitch shares surged 18% after raising its profit forecast. Meanwhile, Deere & Company's stock fell after its 2026 profit outlook was lower than expected, citing concerns over squeezed operating margins and an anticipated 15-20% drop in sales to its biggest customers due to higher costs from tariffs.
In the tech sector, Dell announced that its revenue and earnings per share will beat expectations, driven by demand for its AI products, with plans to double its AI shipments to $25 billion. Conversely, HP Inc. announced plans to cut up to 6,000 jobs by 2028 as it pivots towards using artificial intelligence to streamline operations.
Turbulence in AI and Cryptocurrency Markets
The artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency sectors are facing significant financial and market challenges, from funding shortfalls and geopolitical tensions to hacks and regulatory scrutiny.
AI Developments and Rivalries
AI leader OpenAI is reportedly facing an estimated $207 billion funding gap by 2030, driven by enormous long-term cloud computing commitments, fuelling concerns of an AI bubble. However, investor enthusiasm remains strong elsewhere, with shares of Google parent Alphabet surging over 13% this month. Wall Street sees the company as an AI leader following the announcement of its new 'Ironwood' tensor processing units and its latest AI model, Gemini 3.
In a sign of escalating tech tensions, China has blocked TikTok parent company ByteDance from using Nvidia AI chips, pushing the company to use Chinese technology instead. Meanwhile, Alibaba has entered the wearable tech race with AI-powered smart glasses, competing directly with Meta's Ray-Ban smart glasses.
Crypto Market Downturn and Security Breaches
A notable decoupling has occurred between Bitcoin and tech stocks, with Bitcoin plunging 20% over the past month while the Nasdaq remained comparatively resilient. This has triggered widespread liquidations and impacted crypto-holding companies, which have collectively shed $77 billion since July. Despite a brief pre-Thanksgiving price jump past $90,000, Bitcoin remains significantly down from its recent highs. Adding to the sector's woes, South Korea's largest exchange, Upbit, suffered a hack resulting in approximately $37 million in "abnormal withdrawals" of Solana-ecosystem tokens.
Regulatory and Development Highlights
Regulatory scrutiny has intensified globally. S&P Global Ratings downgraded Tether's (USDT) stability assessment to its weakest level, warning that its Bitcoin holdings could leave it undercollateralised. In Thailand, authorities are demanding that Worldcoin delete 1.2 million iris scans from its database, citing violations of personal data protection laws. In the U.S., however, prediction market Polymarket received approval from the CFTC, enabling U.S. users to trade through regulated intermediaries.
On the development front, Ethereum validators have raised the L1 block gas limit, increasing transaction capacity ahead of its Fusaka hard fork, and Polygon's payment volume hit $1 billion in November.
Global and Political Roundup
Several noteworthy political, business, and cultural developments have emerged globally. In the U.S., President Trump announced plans to suspend migration from unspecified "Third World Countries" and to cancel federal benefits for "noncitizens." Separately, the fee for an annual U.S. national parks pass for international tourists is set to increase from $80 to $250 starting in 2026. On the healthcare front, Medicare has successfully negotiated price cuts of up to 85% for 15 major prescription drugs, with the changes scheduled to take effect in 2027.
Internationally, Uber has launched its robotaxi service in Abu Dhabi, its fourth autonomous driving market. In business, Apple is poised to ship more smartphones than Samsung this year for the first time in 14 years, driven by strong iPhone sales. U.S. sales of South Korean "K-beauty" products are slated to surge more than 37% this year to over $2 billion, prompting major retailers to expand their offerings. Finally, South Korea has imposed sanctions on the Cambodian conglomerate Prince Group, accusing it of conducting large-scale fraud operations.
NOTE: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).