AMD Shares Soar on Meta Deal Amid Fresh Uncertainty Over US Tariff Policy

Market Snapshot

US stock futures are pointing to a higher open, suggesting some positive momentum after a recovery rally in the previous session.

• 📈 S&P 500: 6,921 (+0.51%)
• 📈 NASDAQ 100: 25,302 (+1.09%)
• 📈 DOW JONES: 49,175 (+0.76%)
• 📈 FTSE 100: 10,771 (+0.60%)
• 📈 STOXX 600: (+0.23%)
• 📈 CSI 300: (+1.01%)
• 📈 Bitcoin: $67,457 (+5.34%)
• 📈 Ethereum: $2,021 (+9.19%)
• 📉 Oil (WTI): $65 (-1.10%)
• 📈 Gold: $5,196 (+1.04%)
• 📈 10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.05% (+0.27%)

Corporate Movers & Shakers

Several major companies made headlines with significant strategic moves, from blockbuster tech partnerships and aggressive pharmaceutical pricing to major takeover bids and mixed results in retail and travel.

AMD Secures Landmark Deal with Meta

Shares in chip designer AMD jumped nearly 9% following the announcement of a major new partnership with Meta. The social media giant will use AMD's chips to power its new data centres, securing a multiyear deal for up to 6 gigawatts of GPUs. This is a significant win for AMD in the competitive artificial intelligence hardware space, diversifying Meta's supply away from a sole reliance on Nvidia.

Adding another layer to the deal, AMD has granted Meta warrants to acquire a stake of around 10% in the company, via 160 million shares. This signals a deep, long-term commitment from Meta and underscores the critical importance of high-performance chips for the future of AI.

Media Merger Battle: Paramount Ups Bid for Warner Bros. Discovery to $77bn

A takeover battle in the media world is escalating. Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is under pressure after Paramount Skydance raised its hostile takeover offer to $31 per share. The new price values WBD's equity at roughly $77 billion, or $111 billion including debt, representing a staggering 312% premium to its lows in April 2025.

WBD's board acknowledged the revised offer “could reasonably be expected to lead to a superior proposal” to its current deal with Netflix, valued at $27.75 per share. If it makes that formal determination, Netflix will have four business days to match it. The bids reflect starkly different strategies: Netflix wants only the 'crown jewel' assets like the Warner Bros. studio and HBO, while Paramount wants the entire company, including its declining traditional television networks.

Shareholders are becoming increasingly vocal. Activist investors like Pentwater Capital and Ancora Holdings are publicly opposing the Netflix deal, arguing it undervalues the company. With Paramount's tender offer expiring on 2nd March and a WBD shareholder vote scheduled for 20th March, the pressure is intensifying.

Weight-Loss Drug War Heats Up

Novo Nordisk announced plans to dramatically cut the prices of its popular weight-loss drugs, a move set to escalate the fierce pricing war with rival Eli Lilly. Starting from January 2027, the company will cut the US list price of its blockbuster obesity drug Wegovy by as much as 50%, and its diabetes drug Ozempic by 35%.

This aggressive strategy targets patients with high-deductible insurance plans who face steep out-of-pocket costs. The price war could squeeze profit margins but may also expand the total market by making these treatments accessible to more people. The timing notably aligns with new Medicare-negotiated prices, which could accelerate broader adoption.

Joby Aviation Faces a Defining Moment

Electric air taxi company Joby Aviation reports its crucial fourth-quarter earnings today, with investor sentiment for the entire sector hanging in the balance. The key focus is its certification timeline with the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). While the company is in the advanced stages, analysts increasingly believe commercial passenger flights may be delayed until mid-2027 or later.

With around $2.5 billion in cash, funding is not an immediate concern. Instead, the market is looking for concrete proof of progress. This includes updates on early operational sites in New York and Dubai, and evidence that its manufacturing partnership with Toyota is ready to scale up production. The results will determine whether the air taxi dream is grounded by delays or cleared for take-off.

Software Stocks Rebound on Calmer AI Fears

Recent product releases from AI startup Anthropic had sparked sharp declines in cybersecurity and software stocks. However, its latest update to the 'Claude Cowork' productivity tool was not seen as the disruptive threat that Wall Street had feared. This sense of relief helped software stocks regain ground, contributing to a broader market recovery rally that saw the Dow Jones climb over 350 points.

Mixed Fortunes in Consumer and Tech

• Home Improvement Split: Lowe's reported quarterly sales growth of over 10% and surpassed Q4 expectations, but its weaker-than-expected earnings outlook for the full year sent its shares down around 3% in premarket trading. This contrasts with rival Home Depot, which recently beat muted estimates despite a sales decline, showing the sector is still navigating a tough housing market.
• Cava's Meteoric Rise: The fast-casual restaurant saw its stock surge nearly 10% in extended trading after beating analyst expectations for the fourth quarter. Cava reported unexpected growth in same-store sales and announced that its full-year revenue had topped $1 billion for the first time, signalling powerful consumer demand.
• Panera Chases Value: In a bid to win back money-conscious customers, Panera Bread announced a new “Mix & Match” value meal. This move follows similar promotions from giants like McDonald’s, showing that affordability is becoming a key battleground for fast-casual restaurants.
• Spirit Airlines Fights for Survival: After filing for bankruptcy last year, the budget airline is working on a plan to significantly reduce its fleet and flight schedules. The goal is to emerge as a smaller, more focused company centred on its most profitable routes.
• Alphabet's Waymo Expands: Alphabet’s self-driving unit, Waymo, announced it is expanding its robotaxi service to Dallas, Houston, and other major US markets. Already completing 400,000 weekly trips, the move widens its lead over competitors like Tesla and Amazon's Zoox.
• Grindr's Post-IPO Struggles: The dating app Grindr has faced a decline in user experience since its 2022 IPO. Former employees and users point to an aggressive monetisation strategy, including a surge in ads, as the company prioritises revenue to meet Wall Street expectations, leading to community frustration.

HSBC Beats Profit Forecasts

Banking giant HSBC reported annual pre-tax profit of $29.91 billion, beating analyst expectations. The strong performance was driven by its wealth management division and its key business operations in Hong Kong.

The Economic Big Picture

Broader economic news was dominated by US political developments and rising geopolitical tensions, which are creating significant uncertainty for global trade and energy markets.

Geopolitical Tensions Put Oil Markets on High Alert

Energy markets are bracing for extreme volatility as a deadline for nuclear negotiations with Iran approaches on Thursday. The stakes have been raised by a massive US military buildup in the Middle East, including two aircraft carrier groups. President Trump used his State of the Union address to warn that Iran is “again pursuing sinister ambitions,” escalating the pressure.

Analysts estimate that a “geopolitical risk premium” of $7 to $10 per barrel is already priced into oil. This means prices are artificially high due to fears of conflict. The situation presents two very different outcomes for investors:

• A diplomatic deal: Could cause the risk premium to evaporate overnight, potentially triggering a collapse in crude prices and boosting sectors like airlines.
• Failed talks: Could lead to conflict, disrupting supply through the critical Strait of Hormuz and pushing oil prices above $100 per barrel, benefiting defence stocks.

Trump's Economic Speech Clashes With Data

In his State of the Union address, President Trump declared the US economy is “roaring like never before,” but the data tells a more complicated story. While he accurately cited a lower inflation reading and the Dow crossing 50,000, key indicators are weakening. GDP growth slowed to 2.2% for 2025, and unemployment has edged up to 4.3%. Polls reflect this disconnect, with his approval rating at a low of 36% and 57% of voters disapproving of his economic handling.

His speech also introduced new policy proposals, including a government-backed retirement plan, tax-advantaged savings accounts for children, and a ban on large institutions buying single-family homes. This policy mix, combined with his ongoing tariff strategy, continues to create an unpredictable environment for businesses.

Record Chinese Trade Gap Signals Widespread Tariff Evasion

A stunning $112 billion gap has emerged between what China claims it exported to the US in 2025 and what US Customs recorded as imports. This discrepancy, which has nearly doubled in a year, suggests that roughly a quarter of Chinese goods are entering the country fraudulently to avoid tariffs. Methods reportedly include using shell companies as “phantom importers” and rerouting shipments through other countries like Mexico and Vietnam to disguise their origin. This practice is putting severe pressure on US manufacturers who pay the full tariffs and cannot compete on price, contributing to the loss of over 100,000 manufacturing jobs last year.

AI's Economic Future Sparks Debate

While companies invest billions in AI, economists are debating its ultimate economic benefit. A recent analysis raised a doomsday scenario where rapid AI-driven job replacement could trigger a major stock market sell-off. The core question is whether AI will boost measurable Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or create “ghost GDP”—productivity gains that don't appear in official statistics and don't translate into broader prosperity.

Consumer Confidence Shows Signs of Life

The latest data shows a welcome bounce in US consumer confidence after a period of decline. The survey suggests people are feeling better about the job market and the direction of inflation, which is a positive signal for consumer spending and the economy as a whole.

The Bond Market's Green Shoots

With economic policy in flux, some analysts are highlighting opportunities elsewhere. According to BlackRock, the window is still open for investors to get attractive yields from bonds—the fixed-interest investments offered by governments and companies. This suggests that bonds could offer a reliable source of income as the stock market navigates political uncertainty.

Crypto Crossroads: Legal Woes, Price Slumps and an Identity Crisis

The cryptocurrency sector is facing a turbulent period, marked by high-profile legal battles, falling prices, and a deep debate about its fundamental purpose, even as technological innovation continues.

Legal Storm Clouds Gather

• Terraform Sues Jane Street: The administrator for the collapsed Terraform Labs has filed a major lawsuit against trading firm Jane Street. It alleges that Jane Street used non-public information from insiders to profit during the Terra-Luna collapse in 2022, which erased over $40 billion in market value. The lawsuit adds to the legal fallout from one of crypto's most infamous implosions.
• Binance Denies Compliance Lapses: Separately, the world's largest crypto exchange, Binance, has disputed reports that it fired investigators who uncovered $1.7 billion in transfers to entities linked with Iran. The company stated its internal review found no sanctions violations, but the allegations keep regulatory scrutiny firmly fixed on the exchange.

Bitcoin's Price Recovers

Reflecting a broader market recovery, Bitcoin’s price has climbed back above $67,000. The rebound comes after a recent dip below $63,000, which had triggered a state of “extreme fear” among traders. The previous drop was attributed to wider economic concerns and thin trading activity, which can make prices more volatile.

Innovation vs. Identity Crisis

Despite the negative headlines, development in the space continues. NEAR Protocol launched a 'super app' with AI and privacy features, while MoonPay released a new software layer to allow AI agents to conduct financial transactions autonomously.

However, there is a growing philosophical split in the industry. Some argue that crypto has lost its way by chasing approval from traditional finance, and should refocus on its original mission of decentralisation and censorship resistance. This is occurring just as major institutions like BlackRock quietly integrate blockchain technology, suggesting crypto's core infrastructure is becoming a foundation for the future of finance, regardless of the price of individual tokens.

Global and Emerging Trends

Beyond the immediate headlines, several longer-term trends are taking shape, from a rush for raw materials and a crypto crisis to a surprising revival of older technology.

The Analog Backlash: A Retro Tech Revival

A counter-intuitive trend is emerging among younger generations, who are showing a growing fatigue with digital life. This “digital overload” is fuelling a backlash against smartphones and algorithm-driven platforms, leading to renewed interest in physical media and single-purpose devices.

• Retro Tech Is Back: Discontinued devices like Apple's iPod are seeing a surge in interest, with eBay searches for classic models up significantly.
• Physical Media Rebounds: Consumers are rediscovering physical formats, from CDs and vinyl to print books.
• Potential Beneficiaries: This trend could quietly benefit companies with strong offline products. Watch for renewed interest in Nokia's feature phones, Sony's dedicated audio gear, and Nintendo's in-person gaming hardware.

The Rise of Prediction Markets

A new form of financial market is gaining traction. So-called 'prediction markets', such as Polymarket, allow users to place bets on the outcome of real-world events, from political results to specific phrases used by central bankers. With weekly trading volumes approaching $2 billion and major firms like Goldman Sachs expressing interest, these platforms are financialising public opinion, turning it into a tradable commodity.

Governments Scramble for Critical Minerals

A new era of “resource nationalism” appears to be dawning, with governments around the world moving to secure their own supplies of critical minerals. From the US to the EU and Asia, nations are building up stockpiles of metals like lithium and cobalt, which are essential for technologies like electric vehicles and advanced electronics. This global race could increase competition and prices for these vital materials.

Bitcoin Mining Faces Profitability Crisis

According to recent reports, mining Bitcoin has become officially unprofitable for many operators. While the price of Bitcoin has been volatile, the high energy costs required for mining have remained stubbornly high. This is forcing a strategic shift in the industry, with some publicly traded mining companies, such as Iren, transitioning their operations to provide power for traditional data centres instead.

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NOTE: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).